Markets don’t function well if
they are ridden with frictions like lack of information or lack of
trust. A new working paper finds that cities in the sixteenth century
where monopolies of densely networked merchant guilds declined had
significantly higher levels of printing, as they were early adopters of
printing technology. Additionally, these cities were found on the
Atlantic coast, where traders had the greatest incentives to form new
connections with unfamiliar traders.

In the sixteenth century, the Northwest
European region of England and the Low Countries underwent
transformational change. In this region, a bourgeois culture
emerged and cities like Antwerp, Amsterdam, and London became centers
of institutional and business innovation, whose accomplishments have
influenced the modern world.
For example, one of the first permanent
commodity bourses was established in Antwerp in 1531, the first stock
exchange emerged in Amsterdam in 1602, and joint stock companies became a
promising form of organizing business in London in the late sixteenth
century. The sixteenth century transformation was followed by the
seventeenth century Dutch Golden Age, and the eighteenth century English
Industrial Revolution. What made the Northwest region of Europe so
different? The question remains a central concern in social sciences,
with scholars from diverse fields (Weber, 1905; North, 1990; Padgett and Powell, 2012; McCloskey, 2016; Rubin, 2017) researching the subject.
The medieval power of merchant guilds

Markets don’t function well if they are
ridden with frictions like lack of information, lack of trust, or high
transaction costs. In the presence of frictions, business is often
conducted via relationships.
Until the end of the fifteenth century,
impartial institutions like courts and police that serve all parties
generally—so ubiquitous today in the developed world—weren’t well
developed in Europe. In such a world without impartial institutions,
trade often was (is) heavily dependent on relationships and conducted
through networks like merchant guilds. Such relationship-based trade
through dense networks of merchant guilds reduced concerns of
information access and reliability. Not surprisingly, because the
merchant guild system was an effective system in the absence of strong
formal institutions, it sustained in Europe for several centuries. In
developing countries like India, lacking in developed formal
institutions, networked institutions like castes still play an important
role in business.
Before the fourteenth century, merchant
guild networks were probably less hierarchical, more voluntary, and more
inclusive. But, with time, merchant guilds started to become exclusive
monopolies, placing high barriers to entry for outsiders, and they began to resemble cartels with close involvement in local politics. There were two reasons why these guilds erected such tough barriers to entry:
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Repeated committed interaction was the key to effectiveness of merchant guilds. Uncommitted outsiders could behave opportunistically and undermine the reliability of the system. Therefore, outsiders faced restrictions.
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Outsiders threatened the position of existing businessmen by increasing competition. So, even genuinely committed outsiders could be restricted to enter as they threatened the domination of existing members.
But, in the sixteenth century, the
merchant guild system began to lose its significance as more impersonal
markets, where traders could directly trade without the need of an
affiliation, began to emerge (see Region 1 of map in Figure I) and
rulers stopped granting privileges to merchant guilds. The traders began
to rely less on networked and collective institutions like merchant
guilds, and directly initiated partnerships with traders who they may
not have known well. For example, in Antwerp the domination of intermediaries (called hostellers)
who would connect foreign traders declined. Instead, the foreign
traders began to conduct such trades directly with each other in
facilities like bourses.
Emergence of markets in the 16th century
A new working paper studyies the emergence of impersonal markets in Europe during the
sixteenth century. The author surveys survey the 50 largest European cities during the
fourteenth through sixteenth centuries (mapped in Figure I) and codify
the nature of sixteenth century economic institutions in each of the
cities (explore interactive data on early modern Europe).
In the survey, I find that merchant guilds were declining in the
Northwest region of Europe, while elsewhere in Europe they continued to
dominate commerce until much later, although there were some reforms
underway in the Milanese and Viennese regions of Italy.
What explains the observed pattern of
emergence of impersonal markets in sixteenth century Europe? I focus on
the interaction between the commercial and communication revolutions of
the late fifteenth century Europe. In the paper, I argue that the
Northwest European region uniquely benefited from both of these
revolutions due to its unique geography.
Commercial revolution at the Atlantic coast

What motivated traders to seek risky
opportunities beyond close networks? If traders found partnerships with
unfamiliar traders beyond their business networks to be highly
beneficial, that would provide good incentives for the rise of
impersonal markets. The Northwest Region was close to the sea, notably
the Atlantic coast, which was at the time undergoing a commercial
revolution with the discovery of new sea routes to Asia and the
Americas. So, the region became a hub for long distance trade,
attracting unfamiliar traders who came to its coast looking for business
opportunity. I find that all cities where merchant guild privileges
declined were at the sea, along the Atlantic or North Sea coast.
Moreover, all cities where merchant guilds underwent reform (but didn’t
decline) were within 150km of a sea port.
The communication revolution of the postal system and the printing press
What made traders feel confident about
the reliability of such risky impersonal partnerships? If availability
of trade-related information and business practices improved, it could
increase confidence traders had in such unfamiliar partnerships. In the
sixteenth century, the postal system improved across Europe.
The postal system made communication between distant traders easier as
traders could correspond regularly with each other and gain more
accurate information. This helped expand long distance trade across
Europe.
While the Northwest European region
didn’t have a particular advantage over other regions in postal
communication, it had an advantage in early diffusion of printed books.
The Northwest European region was close to Mainz, the city where
Johannes Gutenberg invented the movable time printing press in the mid
fifteenth century. Dittmar (2011)
showed how cities close to Mainz adopted printing sooner than many
other regions of Europe in the first few decades of its introduction.
So, trade-related books and new (or unknown) business practices like
double-entry bookkeeping diffused early and rapidly in the region.

Such a high penetration of printed
material reduced information barriers and improved business practices. I
find that all cities where guild privileges declined or merchant guilds
underwent reform in the sixteenth century enjoyed high penetration of
printed material in the fifteenth century. Among cities within a 150km
distance from a sea port, cities where merchant guilds declined or
reformed had more than twice the number of diffused books per capita
than cities where merchant guilds continued to dominate.
As a comparison, there were four major
Atlantic port cities where merchant guilds declined: Hamburg, London,
Antwerp, and Amsterdam; while there were four guild-based Atlantic
cities: Lisbon, Seville, Rouen, and Bordeaux in the sixteenth century.
The fifteenth century per capita printing penetration of the cities
would stack as: Lisbon < Bordeaux < Hamburg < Seville < Rouen < London < Amsterdam < Antwerp.
The combination of both the commercial
revolution along the sea coast, especially the Atlantic coast, and the
communication revolution, especially near Mainz, uniquely benefited
Northwest Europe, as it began to attract traders who favored impersonal
market-based exchange over exchange conducted via guild networks. Rulers
began to disfavor privileged monopolies when they realized the
feasibility of impersonal exchange and that they could have superior
sources of revenue from impersonal markets. In the region, trade democratized, as more people could participate in business.
Regions like Spain and Portugal that
benefited only from the commercial revolution of trade through the sea
to Asia and Americas had low levels of printing penetration. In
contrast, regions like Germany, Italy, and France benefited from the
communication and print revolution but didn’t enjoy a bustling Atlantic
coast. Thus, no other region enjoyed the unique combination of both
benefits of the commercial and communication revolution.
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